Oil fell in price in anticipation of the IEA report and from the API ratings
Analysts at Bank of Russia predicts that by the end of the year inflation in the absence of new price shocks would be at around 5.5 per cent, while the decline in GDP – is closer to 0.7 percent.
This is stated in the review of the Department of Research and Forecasting CBR “What do the trends.”
“Calculations show that inflation at the end of this year is expected to reach the level of 5.5 per cent Such dynamics corresponds to target trajectory for inflation, the Bank of Russia, leading out to 4 percent by the end of 2017.” – Said in the review.
The conclusions and recommendations contained in the newsletter do not necessarily reflect the official position of the Bank of Russia.
The official inflation forecast for 2016 – 5.5-6.0 percent.
“To date, accumulated since the beginning of the year price increase of 4.1 per cent. Until the end of September remained a slight deviation from the path leading to the inflation rate of 5.5 percent for the year. However, in the absence of negative shocks to the end of the year it is likely to disappear “, – analysts believe the CBR.
The rapid slowdown in the annual inflation rate in the fourth quarter of 2016 – the first quarter of 2017 and will contribute to the high base effect of last year.
At the same time, experts point to the risks – the acceleration of the monthly rise in prices is due in September, not only to the seasonality of prices for fruit and vegetables, but also the continuing steady pressure from the rise in prices for non-food products due to the recovery of the trade margin.
In addition, inflation expectations have ceased to decline, remaining at an elevated level, and therefore the risks of not achieving the inflation target in 2017 remain.
Seasonally adjusted 4-week inflation (based on the year ahead) accelerated from 4.2 to 5.19 percent, according to the latest weekly data, which indicates the lack of sustainability of the trend towards a slowdown in inflation, according to a survey.
The improvement in the labor market also has some risks. The growth of employment in both the formal and informal sectors and a declining population of working age could lead to increased competition for labor resources, which can carry some risk of inflation.
Analysts CBR expects that the results of 2016 the decline in GDP will be closer to the lower limit of the current official forecast of the Bank of Russia in the baseline scenario – 0.3-0.7 percent.
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